We’re a third of the way through the season now, so I thought I’d try and sum up how the season is panning out. I’m just going to do it on a results basis, using previous seasons as comparison to give me some kind of projection to where we’ll end up. It’s going to be a bit dry, so make sure you’ve got a drink. I warn any optimistic Blues supporters, (Is there any?) before reading, make sure that the liquid of choice is strong.
Blues have 8 goals in 16 games. The worst in the football league. We’ve let in 25 goals. Only one team has a worse goal difference, Burton. It’s bad enough being the worst in the league you’re in but being the worst in the three divisions is worrying. 1 point and only 3 goals away from home is even more worrying. Is it the worst? Of course it is. We’re not the only team that hasn’t won, Q.P.R., Millwall and Bury haven’t either but even Bury, who are rock bottom of League two, have drawn three times.
Now I’m not going to blame or exonerate any of the three managers we’ve had so far. (I say so far, because I don’t think the present incumbent will survive either.)
Flash Harry For :- (Games played= 8), chances on target= 27, per game= 3·375, goals scored= 4, per game= 0·5.
Flash Harry Against :- chances on target= 33, per game= 4·125, goals conceded= 12, per game= 1·5
Elsie For :- (Games played= 3), chances on target=8, per game= 2·666, goals scored= 3, per game= 1 (Obviously)
Elsie Against :- chances on target= 18, per game= 6, (No calculator needed on that one either) goals conceded= 7, per game= 2·333
Worzel For:- (Games played=5), chances on target= 14, per game= 2·8, goals scored= 1, per game= 0·2
Worzel Against:- chances on target= 18, per game= 3·6, goals conceded=6, per game= 1·2
There’s not a great lot of difference between the three. You could argue that Elsie is a lot more attacking than Worzel and Worzel is more defensive but in truth, we conceded 6 at Hull under Carsley, so you could clutch at straws and say that was a one off. Worzel has had more chances on target per game though, so like I said, nothing to garner from that bunch of statistics.
Now the comparison with the other three teams in the bottom four. I’ve taken the teams above out of the equation because I honestly can’t see three of them finishing below what is presently the bottom four. I’ve chosen the last 5 games (It’s not because that’s how many games Cotterill has been in charge either.)
Burton:- won 1, drawn 1, lost 3, goals for 4, against 8, points 4.
Blues:- won 1, drawn 1, lost 3, goals for 1, against 6, points 4.
Bolton:- won 2, drawn 3, lost 0, goals for 9, against 7, points 9.
Sunderland:- won 0, drawn 3, lost 2, goals for 8, against 10, points 3.
First of all, 4 points out of 15 isn’t even average. Those mathematical geniuses out there will have worked out that it isn’t even a point a game. That lack of goals is starting to stand out isn’t it? Sunderland scored the same amount of goals in the last 5 as we’ve scored all season. Let’s not go there with how Bolton have perked up.
Any optimists still optimistic? The average points total of the team coming 6th since we’ve had playoffs in their present form is 73·666. When Blackpool got promoted, they made it on 70 points. The least has been 68, the most, Fulham last season with 80. The season we first went up under Bruce, we made the playoffs with 76 points. So we need an average of 2·033 points a game or a whopping 61 points from the last 30 games. It could happen but then I could win the lottery jackpot three times in a row. Neither is going to happen.
So what about gaining enough points to stay up then. Incredibly, when the legend that is Paul Caddis headed the equaliser in the 93rd minute, thus elevating himself to Godlike status, we did so with 44 points. The most anybody’s ever needed was 55. The average? It’s 49·75. So 50 points then really. We’re averaging 0·75 at the moment. We need to to up it to 1·266. That’s right, draws won’t do. Conclusion? No point being defensive. If we’re going down then let’s go down fighting, let’s take the game to the opposition. Whoever they are, wherever it is. Let’s get shots away, let’s play on the front foot. We have to attack, we’ve no option not to.
Why? Well I looked at our league record at 16 games in to season since 3 points for a win was brought in and for me, it seals our fate. Only twice in all that time have we been on the same or less points, 88/89, 9 points, 12 goals, of which, 1 win and 2 draws away from home. We got relegated. 05/06, 12 points, 11 goals, of which, 2 wins and 2 draws away from home. We got relegated. I switched focus to away form. 85/86, 3 points, a lone victory, we’d also amassed 16 points overall, scoring 11 goals in the process. We got relegated. 82/83 we only managed 4 draws and we stayed up, but then we’d gained 17 points from the 11 goals scored. What we on now? Oh dear. 93/94 5 points, including 1 win. We’d managed 20 points, scoring 19 (Yes, 19) goals. We got relegated. We got relegated in 07/08, 14 points, 17 goals, 7 points away, including 2 wins. We got relegated 10/11, 18 points, 18 goals, 5 away from home, all draws. Surely we had a worse start when Caddis started the party in 13/14? No, no we didn’t. How’s 15 points, 18 goals, do you? There’s 7 away points in that 15 too. Same as the next year when Rowett took us over. In fact, the only difference, was we’d scored 4 less goals. Points wise, we were on the same after 16 games and even the 7 point haul away from home was the same.
So it’s not looking good then, is it? My Nephew reckoned he could hear the tune to the Great Escape. I suggested, he should get his hearing checked out. We aren’t getting out of this one.